Thursday, December 29, 2005

Holiday Bowl Preview


Oklahoma has never been to the Holiday Bowl and Oregon wishes that they were in a BCS bowl. The stage is set for the 10-1 Ducks to take on the 7-4 Sooners but don’t let the records fool you this should be a fun game.

Oregon plays in the Pac-10, which I think is an over-rated conference, but their coach, Mike Bellotti, is one of the best in America. I respect their offense a lot but they haven’t faced very many physical teams the caliber of Oklahoma.

Oklahoma’s offense against Oregon’s defense
Junior defensive tackle Haloti Ngata also had a big season and became Oregon's first consensus All-American since 1962 but I like the match-up between Adrian Peterson and the Oregon run defense. I think the Sooners will be able to run successfully against the Ducks. I also like the match-up problems that fullback JD Runnels is going to create with Oregon linebackers focused on stopping Adrian Peterson. Look for Runnels to get a lot of passes coming his way on misdirection plays. Advantage: Oklahoma

Oregon’s defense against Oklahoma’s defense

I don’t like the match-up between the Oregon receivers and the Oklahoma secondary. In my opinion this match-up goes to the Ducks which means that the Sooners are going to have to be effective with their blitzes to get to the quarterbacks before they can get passes off. An overlooked stat is that this OU defense has more sacks than last season’s Orange Bowl team. Advantage: Oregon

Coaching

As much as I respect Mike Bellotti the coaching advantage has to go to Bob Stoops. Since taking over in 1999 he has led the Sooners to bowl games every season including national championship games in 2000, 2004 and 2005. Stoops Sooners have also won three Big 12 Championships. Advantage: Oklahoma

Prediction

Stoops, who played 18 freshmen and started 11 this season, doesn't think he'll have any trouble getting his players motivated for the game.
"Playing a team that's 10-1 gets your attention big-time," Stoops said. "Our players recognize it as a major challenge. It does excite them. You can tell just in looking at their faces and the way they practice. They understand it's a big challenge."

Oklahoma is 5-0 all-time against Oregon, with all five games being played in Norman, Okla. The Sooners, who were ranked No. 2 last season when they beat the unranked Ducks 31-7, will play at Oregon for the first time next season.

I think it will be an entertaining game. I see it being a shootout early and then the Sooners to wear down the Ducks defense late on their way to a 31-20 Sooner victory.